The Rocky Mountain Collegian

Issue date: 2/10/09 Section: News

Media Credit: Ariel Schalit - Associated Press Israel's Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu holds a ballot paper of the party at a branch of the Likud party in Herzliya near Tel Aviv , Israel, Monday. Israel will vote in national elections today.

JERUSALEM - Israel's election has suddenly become too close to call, though hard-liners are expected to have a clear edge in the horse trading that is sure to follow Tuesday's vote.

The fractious coalition government likely to emerge could complicate efforts to create a Palestinian state and pose big challenges for President Barack Obama, who has made achieving Middle East peace a top priority.

The race pits former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who opposes giving up land in the name of peace, against Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, a centrist who hopes to become the country's first female leader in nearly 40 years.

For months, opinion polls have predicted a decisive victory by Netanyahu's Likud Party. But new polls released over the weekend showed Livni's Kadima Party closing the gap. Neither is expected to get more than 30 seats in the 120-seat parliament, however, meaning the winner will have to form a coalition with smaller parties.

Netanyahu seems to be in a far better position, since his natural allies in the nationalist right wing of Israeli politics are all polling well. In particular, Netanyahu's former protege, Avigdor Lieberman, appears poised to make huge gains on a platform that calls for Israeli Arabs to swear loyalty to the state or lose citizenship.

While Livni could still eke out a victory, it appears mathematically impossible for her to form a coalition without bringing in Lieberman or some other hard-line party. That would hinder her ability to pursue a peace agreement with the Palestinians, as she has promised to do.

Still, polls have often been inaccurate in Israel. This time the pollsters' task is even more difficult, because turnout is expected to be low and a plethora of small parties could upset the whole equation. An estimated 15 to 20 percent of voters remain undecided.

The strength of the Israeli right is a reflection of the times. Israel recently wrapped up a three-week war against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip to try to halt years of rocket attacks into southern Israel. The right criticized the government for failing to go all the way and end Hamas rule over Gaza.

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